mercoledì, novembre 29, 2006

Proprio una brutta CERA

Esce su "energy Bulletin" un articolo di Ugo Bardi che commenta le ultime stime di abbondanza di Cambridge Energy REsearch Associates (CERA).

L'articolo si intitola "Stime delle Risorse per Geologicamente Andicappati", La critica alle stime di CERA si basa principalente su un esame dell'affidabilità di stime passate, che - contrariamente a quello che spesso si pensa - sono risultate molte volte sbagliate per eccesso.

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Published on 25 Nov 2006 by ASPO-Italy. Archived on 28 Nov 2006.
Resource Forecasting for the Geologically Challenged

by Ugo Bardi


Estimating the amount of crude oil resources seems to be a popular activity nowadays, but often the results of the various studies are not in agreement with each other.

Several independent researchers estimated the total planetary endowment, or “ultimate recoverable resource” (URR), as around 2 trillion barrels (ASPO 2006). Others, instead, propose larger numbers: a study by the United States Geological Survey (Wood and Long 2000) proposed an URR of 3 trillion barrels as the most probable value. A recent study from Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA 2006,1) proposes “4.82 trillion barrels” as the ultimate world endowment.

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